Estimated Population of England and Wales, 1570-1750

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ESTIMATED POPULATION OF ENGLAND AND WALES, 1570-1750.


As an appendage to the Table (page 8) showing the progressive increase of population in England and Wales, as ascertained from the result of actual enumeration commenced in the year 1801, and repeated at decennial periods down to the year 1841, we have to subjoin a calculation of the probable population of England and Wales at six irregular periods anterior to the first enumeration in 1801, and commencing with the year 1570. This Table was compiled by the late Mr. Rickman, with a view to its forming part of the Preface to the Abstract of the Population for 1841, had that work been intrusted to his charge by the Government, as it had been in the years 1801, 1811, 1821, and 1831. His lamented death, in 1840, prevented his taking any further part in forwarding the present Census; and these calculations having been delivered by his executors to the Home Office, were transmitted to us with other documents relating to the business of the Census. The calculation of the population at the various periods was deduced from Returns of baptisms, burials, and marriages obtained by extracts from the registers of such parishes as possessed documents of an early date—a fact which had been ascertained with a view to the present results, by an inquiry in 1831 into the conditions and earliest date of the registers of every parish. The subjoined letter will best explain the nature of the inquiry.1

The results are arrived at by assuming, in the years 1570, 1600, 1630, 1670, 1700, and 1750, the same proportion of baptisms, burials, and marriages to the existing population as in the years 1800 and 1801; in the last of which years the population was first actually enumerated. The average number of entries in three years (1569, 1570, 1571) forming the basis of calculation for the year 1570, and a similar average for the years 1600, 1630, 1670, 1700, and 1750.

Thus, in the county of Bedford there are extant 394 baptismal entries of the year 1570; and the parishes to which these baptisms belong are found to have 772 baptismal entries in the year 1800.

Or, if 772 baptisms in the year 1800 coincided with a population of 63,393 in 1801, what population is indicated by 394 baptisms in the same parishes in the year 1570?

Baptisms, 1800   Pop., 1801   Baptisms, 1570   Pop., 1570
If 772 : 63,393 :: 394 = 32,353
             
Burials, 1800   Pop., 1801   Burials, 1570   Pop., 1570
If 468 : 63,393 :: 224 = 30,342
             
Marriages, 1800   Pop., 1801   Marriages, 1570   Pop., 1570
If 123 : 63,393 :: 74 = 38,139

It will be seen that the materials which form the basis of this calculation have more connexion with the subject of the Parish Register Abstract than with the present volumes. We may, at a future period, enter into the consideration of the merits of the calculation, deeming it sufficient for the present to state that there is reason for supposing the estimate hereby arrived at to be an approximation to the truth.

ESTIMATED POPULATION OF ENGLAND AND WALES, 1570—1750.

POPULATION of the several Counties of England and of Wales, calculated on supposition that the Registered Baptisms, Burials, and Marriages, on an average of three Years in 1570, 1600, 1630, 1670, 1700 and 1750, bore the same proportion to the Actual Population as in the year 1801.


COUNTIES. Population A.D. 1570,
According to
Population
according to
the Average of
the Three
preceding
Columns.
Population A.D. 1600,
According to
Population
according to
the Average of
the Three
preceding
Columns.
Population A.D. 1630,
According to
Population
according to
the Average of
the Three
preceding
Columns.
Population A.D. 1670,
According to
Population
according to
the Average of
the Three
preceding
Columns.
Population A.D. 1700,
According to
Population
according to
the Average of
the Three
preceding
Columns.
Population A.D. 1750,
According to
Population
according to
the Average of
the Three
preceding
Columns.
1801.
Emume-
rated
Population
COUNTIES.
Bap. Bur. Marr. Bap. Bur. Marr. Bap. Bur. Marr. Bap. Bur. Marr. Bap. Bur. Marr. Bap. Bur. Marr.
BEDFORD 32,353 30,342 38,139 33,611 43,801 42,960 46,527 44,429 44,923 62,496 57,286 54,902 40,569 55,618 50,598 48,928 46,968 58,609 55,541 53,706 49,540 65,985 63,102 59,542 63,393 BEDFORD
BERKS 45,543 40,791 70,885 52,406 55,411 48,732 83,474 62,539 58,426 61,349 86,415 68,730 62,983 76,855 72,075 70,638 68,812 76,469 88,255 77,845 85,831 85,811 105,538 92,393 109,215 BERKS
BUCKINGHAM 59,408 47,533 47,563 51,501 64,270 54,242 60,718 59,743 70,858 66,643 69,957 69,153 61,396 71,566 55,966 62,976 77,516 85,198 66,261 76,325 88,310 96,747 78,405 87,821 107,444 BUCKINGHAM
CAMBRIDGE 53,205 64,660 66,819 61,561 73,629 77,262 75,788 75,560 73,890 119,245 81,345 91,493 77,020 120,304 76,233 91,186 79,042 87,406 80,234 82,227 65,998 94,726 73,566 78,097 89,346 CAMBRIDGE
CHESTER 65,121 72,850 68,547 68,840 87,982 77,860 74,190 80,011 98,746 98,158 71,422 89,442 84,781 109,819 68,469 87,690 99,353 118,333 87,109 101,598 122,701 101,983 122,359 115,681 191,751 CHESTER
CORNWALL 85,088 143,632 113,589 114,103 100,503 108,956 133,663 114,374 103,743 135,221 126,629 121,864 99,031 175,007 106,864 126,968 98,295 149,003 124,954 124,084 129,071 148,093 148,069 141,744 188,269 CORNWALL
CUMBERLAND 79,716 82,124 100,483 87,441 88,817 76,120 106,344 90,427 83,253 77,181 87,085 82,506 68,351 90,442 66,151 74,981 85,836 95,481 92,946 91,421 89,413 85,668 86,247 87,109 117,230 CUMBERLAND
DERBY 51,279 54,269 48,732 51,427 71,449 72,429 89,039 77,639 82,042 85,151 80,329 82,507 80,747 100,586 62,424 81,252 98,168 120,771 127,752 115,564 105,937 107,032 111,783 108,251 161,142 DERBY
DEVON 201,542 269,815 247,630 239,662 252,581 221,180 331,111 268,291 303,946 307,724 377,950 329,873 265,911 435,382 296,523 332,605 273,466 376,121 357,413 335,667 277,457 340,717 370,021 329,398 343,001 DEVON
DORSET 66,221 68,366 63,478 66,022 84,302 65,278 88,071 79,217 93,557 86,041 101,464 93,687 83,489 121,294 68,457 91,080 82,879 106,804 76,200 88,628 86,235 97,842 100,649 94,909 115,319 DORSET
DURHAM 63,085 56,645 55,425 58,385 79,622 76,368 88,308 81,433 100,287 92,636 90,498 94,474 127,739 136,843 102,905 122,496 118,015 119,707 105,094 114,272 141,618 128,896 148,883 139,799 160,361 DURHAM
ESSEX 130,275 153,977 191,089 158,447 162,532 153,321 200,355 172,069 170,638 186,804 193,835 183,759 146,319 189,964 161,529 165,937 163,044 177,579 171,902 170,842 165,369 212,514 203,912 193,932 226,437 ESSEX
GLOUCESTER 110,255 115,624 94,606 106,828 120,930 96,548 107,153 108,210 138,385 123,585 111,863 124,611 136,018 169,991 89,255 131,755 155,323 166,944 149,778 157,348 214,493 229,179 210,774 218,149 250,809 GLOUCESTER
HEREFORD 47,561 51,627 70,962 56,717 65,304 64,728 81,546 70,526 61,762 84,481 69,314 71,852 55,222 80,986 60,140 65,449 62,397 90,407 72,882 75,229 69,391 70,502 87,152 75,682 89,191 HEREFORD
HERTFORD 55,945 45,304 63,811 55,020 60,106 53,604 67,592 60,434 67,088 73,656 80,298 73,681 61,327 82,577 59,461 67,788 67,961 85,498 67,338 73,599 78,492 102,945 65,051 82,163 97,577 HERTFORD
HUNTINGDON 26,558 27,489 22,133 25,393 33,315 25,983 29,574 29,624 31,832 40,464 29,775 34,024 31,640 45,015 25,778 34,144 34,604 32,520 28,775 31,966 30,544 35,830 31,173 32,516 37,568 HUNTINGDON
KENT 120,088 125,201 164,842 136,710 155,481 131,094 197,133 161,236 172,953 181,798 212,886 189,212 150,327 174,207 177,660 167,398 156,315 150,243 166,940 157,833 171,922 177,153 194,726 181,267 307,624 KENT
LANCESTER 251,381 186,870 259,711 232,654 226,082 194,233 167,744 196,020 251,794 238,772 169,499 220,022 221,255 336,306 170,551 242,704 224,802 283,312 217,927 242,014 352,078 323,802 348,473 341,451 672,731 LANCESTER
LEICESTER 73,895 60,975 67,800 67,557 80,428 59,771 68,160 69,453 79,564 79,400 67,698 75,554 74,246 91,708 53,604 73,186 86,410 78,435 75,784 80,210 104,224 92,352 98,889 98,488 130,081 LEICESTER
LINCOLN 131,033 176,219 168,922 158,725 165,053 193,941 200,621 186,538 167,178 261,768 205,333 211,426 145,973 326,445 202,605 225,008 164,763 211,270 168,631 181,555 136,145 185,627 172,351 164,708 208,557 LINCOLN
MIDDLESEX 178,517 275,766 222,645 225,643 324,743 256,679 325,527 302,316 536,156 485,551 488,167 503,291 604,099 758,992 421,139 594,743 771,389 838,181 579,837 729,802 635,140 734,945 289,056 553,047 818,129 MIDDLESEX
MONMOUTH         38,891 28,323 16,207 27,807 41,818 33,633 13,168 29,540 34,291 39,829 14,181 29,434 40,145 29,207 11,142 26,831 44,327 33,633 17,220 31,727 45,582 MONMOUTH
NORFOLK 138,327 120,908 162,507 140,581 179,782 165,394 194,333 179,836 203,335 224,307 216,245 214,629 195,256 278,647 213,375 229,093 222,226 268,535 246,764 245,842 209,487 244,266 259,546 237,766 273,371 NORFOLK
NORTHAMPTON 89,100 61,018 71,229 73,782 116,386 84,811 100,614 100,604 119,608 107,189 98,698 108,498 105,916 106,460 90,793 101,056 114,373 116,919 109,718 113,670 117,729 119,919 122,893 120,180 131,757 NORTHAMPTON
NORTHUMBERLAND         73,581 68,215 71,730 71,175 94,978 114,725 83,611 97,771 126,039 146,765 86,251 119,685 118,585 144,181 97,253 120,006 136,117 151,416 160,621 149,385 157,101 NORTHUMBERLAND
NOTTINGHAM 61,383 94,630 56,321 70,778 80,678 92,823 84,775 86,092 77,644 114,287 86,345 92,759 75,076 156,657 86,345 106,026 78,773 98,538 81,635 86,315 81,222 98,956 93,880 91,353 140,350 NOTTINGHAM
OXFORD 49,159 45,849 58,369 51,126 72,777 57,176 92,357 74,103 82,215 70,735 87,178 80,043 72,687 81,224 69,052 74,321 76,044 89,666 89,767 85,159 89,475 91,584 106,599 95,886 109,620 OXFORD
RUTLAND 9,381 8,836 8,178 8,798 12,763 12,907 12,957 12,876 13,072 15,688 10,621 13,127 10,780 18,581 10,833 13,398 15,117 18,136 13,594 15,616 11,585 17,135 9,134 12,618 16,356 RUTLAND
SALOP 86,101 77,702 93,229 85,677 91,464 80,846 89,933 87,414 96,708 96,596 87,567 93,624 100,164 114,550 111,233 108,649 106,663 122,480 127,800 118,981 139,017 107,280 160,144 135,480 167,639 SALOP
SOMERSET 153,955 158,254 152,325 154,845 187,823 151,547 200,695 180,022 203,690 199,919 224,910 209,506 203,278 257,135 165,810 208,741 215,744 238,777 196,591 217,037 224,399 224,172 268,825 239,132 273,750 SOMERSET
SOUTHAMPTON (HANTS) 90,508 84,423 62,278 79,070 129,008 99,328 110,506 112,947 136,722 126,613 115,930 126,422 117,543 160,488 104,743 127,591 114,542 119,561 95,591 109,898 143,580 154,664 134,234 144,159 219,656 SOUTHAMPTON (HANTS)
STAFFORD 68,698 68,592 73,777 70,356 83,647 80,955 91,820 85,474 93,739 90,611 92,708 92,353 104,255 122,640 100,822 109,239 121,109 129,232 127,228 125,856 156,000 146,221 150,933 151,051 239,153 STAFFORD
SUFFOLK 115,609 117,696 130,442 121,249 136,921 137,781 159,304 144,669 155,181 195,476 172,031 174,229 144,769 196,620 149,430 163,606 156,332 179,132 154,916 163,460 146,234 195,313 172,909 171,485 210,431 SUFFOLK
SURREY 56,119 58,669 81,159 65,316 87,922 65,288 99,784 84,331 110,331 102,953 124,194 112,493 133,356 153,103 86,104 124,188 131,506 148,225 118,561 132,764 160,905 187,971 81,276 143,384 269,043 SURREY
SUSSEX 73,213 113,733 116,789 101,245 97,340 95,587 119,542 104,156 107,009 153,357 135,308 131,891 81,960 159,311 106,364 115,878 88,623 105,322 101,658 98,534 91,579 102,587 109,894 101,353 159,311 SUSSEX
WARWICK 62,639 51,633 38,607 50,960 90,119 71,829 57,076 73,008 101,360 78,533 49,030 76,308 95,192 108,961 46,013 83,389 112,898 110,863 72,414 98,725 144,330 145,990 111,890 134,070 208,190 WARWICK
WESTMORLAND 63,813 40,016 59,140 54,323 48,072 39,353 57,966 48,464 52,318 43,653 49,048 48,340 42,636 45,235 46,819 44,897 35,332 51,795 34,928 40,685 35,672 34,153 46,076 38,634 41,617 WESTMORLAND
WILTS 96,185 82,458 108,941 95,861 127,261 90,376 141,378 119,672 146,316 129,030 165,051 146,799 130,068 155,272 101,266 128,869 152,104 150,154 154,859 152,372 166,443 156,905 183,463 168,937 185,107 WILTS
WORCESTER 53,272 46,604 55,342 51,739 74,693 60,863 81,300 72,285 82,408 74,979 78,563 78,650 75,102 96,228 90,607 87,312 91,817 102,906 117,672 104,132 101,577 96,835 110,317 102,910 139,333 WORCESTER
YORK, EAST RIDING 51,172 76,469 46,616 58,086 66,597 65,079 48,378 60,018 62,762 68,745 48,547 60,018 57,648 86,381 45,831 63,287 60,147 60,307 45,492 55,315 57,183 70,543 56,525 61,417 110,992 YORK, EAST RIDING
——— CITY AND AINSTY 12,247 12,933 9,812 11,664 15,951 13,788 13,701 14,480 16,831 19,096 15,557 17,161 17,300 23,368 11,989 17,552 17,710 19,743 15,699 17,717 17,476 21,362 14,272 17,703 24,393 ——— CITY AND AINSTY
——— NORTH RIDING 106,275 114,312 111,812 110,799 119,460 102,774 135,051 119,095 114,663 116,276 109,079 113,339 108,138 151,933 103,086 121,052 109,481 130,696 120,667 120,282 115,430 108,149 123,064 115,548 158,225 ——— NORTH RIDING
——— WEST RIDING 163,232 180,321 175,249 172,934 211,703 213,021 210,782 211,835 236,874 280,024 208,200 241,699 221,122 336,781 219,127 259,010 209,376 294,177 222,834 242,129 323,536 302,580 351,033 325,716 565,282 ——— WEST RIDING
                                                     
TOTAL 3,528,457 3,765,135 3,919,932 3,737,841 4,539,180 4,029,355 4,812,827 4,460,454 5,140,603 5,404,549 5,130,637 5,225,263 4,931,019 6,746,076 4,508,461 5,395,185 5,404,004 6,236,843 5,318,336 5,653,061 5,913,212 6,329,983 5,954,927 6,066,041 8,331,434 TOTAL
                                                       
WALES 323,665 402,227 541,546 422,479 343,879 335,282 374,631 351,264 387,177 393,627 344,957 375,254 325,681 453,617 356,085 378,461 324,426 424,855 426,560 391,947 464,362 387,875 500,745 450,994 541,546 WALES
                                                       
ENGLAND & WALES 3,852,122 4,167,362 4,461,478 4,160,321 4,883,059 4,364,637 5,187,458 4,811,718 5,527,780 5,798,176 5,475,594 5,600,517 5,256,700 7,199,693 4,864,546 5,773,646 5,728,430 6,661,698 5,744,896 6,045,008 6,377,574 6,717,858 6,455,672 6,517,035 8,872,980 ENGLAND & WALES

No Parish Register of the years 1569, 1570, and 1571 being extant in the Counties of Monmouth and Northumberland, the calculated Population of England at that period must be deficient, and the small proportion extant in some other Counties (to wit, in Cumberland, 15 per cent.; in Lancaster, 14 per cent.; in Westmorland, 8 per cent.; in North York, 13 per cent.; and in Wales, 2 per cent.); affords no satisfactory evidence of their Population, so that the above Totals of England and Wales ascribed to the year 1570 require considerate Revision.

The defect of Parish Registers in Monmouthshire and Northumberland, and the deficiency of Parish Registers in Wales is here submitted to correction in the next page.

No Parish Registers whatever of the year 1570 being extant in Monnmouthshire or Northumberland, these Counties afford no entry in the column of Population in the year 1570; which defects therefore must be supplied by the Rule of Proportion applied to all the other English Counties, thus:—

Estimated Population of England in 1600, as above 4,460,454
From which deduct the population of the two counties (Monmouthshire
  and Northumberland) defective in 1570
98,982
   
Population of England minus the two counties 4,361,472


 
1600.
Population 1600
of the
two Counties.

1570.
  Population 1570
of the
two Counties.
Therefore if 4,361,472 98,982 3,737,841 = 84,829
           
Thus 3,737,841 + 84,829 = 3,822,670, the correct estimate of the
population of England in the Year 1570.


Further; The proportion of Parish Registers in Wales extant in 1570 being no more than .02, or 1 /50 , is not to be relied on, and must be altered according to the English Counties; thus,—

Population 1600. Population 1570. Wales 1600. Wales 1570.
If 4,460,454 3,822,670 351,264 301,038

or 121,141 less in number than the Population resulting from the few Registers actually extant in Wales, giving 4,123,708 for the actual population of England and Wales in 1570.


1 REVEREND SIR,

PROBABLY it has not escaped your recollection, if you had charge of a parish: in the year 1831, that in issuing the Population Schedules of Inquiry as to the number of baptisms, burials, and marriages, I took occasion also to request a statement of the extent and condition, of the parish register books in each parish; and I afterwards concentrated the information so obtained in such manner that no essential part of it is omitted in the printed volume which comprises the Parish Register Abstract required by the Population Act of that year.

I confess I was not without expectation by that inquiry to bring to light the unequalled extent of the series of Parish Registers preserved in England, by showing the large proportion of these parochial records which, under the custody of the clergy of the Church of England, has escaped the many casualties which do not fail to occur in every place in the course of 250 years. You will perceive by this limitation of time that herein I do not recur to the original institution of Parish Registers (now three centuries ago), there being no chance of general regularity during the religious convulsions which terminated in the complete settlement of the Reformation in the reign of Queen Elizabeth. Advantage was taken of this in the beginning of the reign of her successor, James I., who promulgated the Canons which are still in force, one of them containing regulations for the improvement and preservation of Parish Registers; and herein the clergyman of each parish was instructed to make; a: copy on parchment of all extant Register Books, especially as far back as the commencement of the reign of Queen Elizabeth; and to this wholesome regulation we owe most of our ancient Parish Registers, the; usual commencement of which is in the year 1558; and the habit of attention to Parish Register Entry in future naturally followed in continuation of these copied registers.

The result is (as ascertained by the inquiry of 1831), that not much less than half the parishes in England possess registers as far back as the year 1600, and of these three-fourths commence as early as the year 1570, to which date, for reasons now to be given, I think any general inquiry ought to be limited.

Such inquiry, with a view of showing the population at certain assigned periods, without imposing an unreasonable burden on the clergy, will be effectual by obtaining the number of baptisms, burials, and marriages at intervals of thirty or forty years, as indeed is rendered almost unavoidable by the political events of the seventeenth century. For the Civil Wars and subsequent confusion of public affairs from 1640 to 1660 caused a general defect in parish registers by the temporary expulsion of most of the clergy from their benefices, so that the years 1630 and 1670 become the most unexceptionable in that century; and the year 1570, checked by the rude enumeration of fighting men at the time of the Spanish Armada in 1588, and compared with the parish registers of the year 1600, will sufficiently indicate the increasing or decreasing state of the population in the reign of Queen Elizabeth.

I do not presume to specify all the purposes, for which knowledge of this kind is useful, much less to foresee the various combinations of science to which it may be auxiliary in the progress of intellectual improvement; I rather confine myself to the immediate object of this inquiry, which seeks to ascertain the rate of mortality among the laborious classes of society. With regard to selected lives (by which are meant the lives of those who have been able to purchase Government Annuities of various kinds), the rate of mortality is well known, even the comparative mortality of the two sexes, and the degree in which the duration of such lives has increased in the course of the last and present century; and it has been found by extensive investigation during the last ten or twelve years that the degree or annual average amount of disease may be inferred from the rate of mortality.

From these premises it follows, that the rate of stated payments to Friendly Societies for ensuring stated benefits will become fixed on solid grounds, and may be published by authority; and the discouragement which has resulted from the too frequent insolvency of such societies will thus be made to disappear by the application of science to well ascertained facts. In urging the importance of institutions whereby the industrious classes may provide for themselves in the day of sickness, I shall not insist on the effect of the recent alteration of the Poor Relief Laws, whereby the encouragement of Friendly Societies has become an incumbent duty, on public grounds as well as in furtherance of individual benevolence; this indeed is so obvious that I shall not presume to dilate further on the subject.

I have now explained my motives for undertaking the voluntary labour of collecting and hereafter arranging such of the Returns solicited by this circular letter as the clergy may be so good as to afford on this occasion. My experience of their willingness to give assistance in a useful inquiry teaches me to expect 4000 Returns of the year 1600, and not less than 3000 Returns of the year 1570.

I do not ask for distinction of the sexes of those baptized or buried, that not being essential to the purpose of the inquiry, and because the difficulty of reading Christian names in any old manuscript is usually such that a clergyman could not in that case use the aid of his family, or any other voluntary assistance, in answering the questions propounded in the enclosed sheet, at the back of which is a printed address, which will not fail to convey it by the post to me in London.

I shall only add, that as a Circular Letter does not always reach its destination, I shall not conclude that the defect of answer or notice in the course of the next month or six weeks arises from an unwillingness to comply with my request, and in that case shall then transmit a duplicate to every clergyman of a parish possessing an ancient register, lest I should fail in conveying to him my request that he will co-operate with me in obtaining a result which cannot but furnish decisive evidence to all Europe of the steady respectability of the clergy of the Church of England ever since its first establishment, and the readiness of the existing clergy to afford their personal attention in aid of any useful investigation.



    To
The Reverend
    The Officiating Minister
    of the Parish of
I have the honour to be,
    Reverend Sir,
        Your most obedient servant,
            JOHN RICKMAN.

P.S.—I had not intended to ask for a return of three consecutive years at the dates of A.D. 1570, 1600, 1630, and 1670; but on communicating my scheme to Mr. Finlaison, Actuary of the National Life Annuity Office, he urged the superior value of an average of three years so forcibly that I consented for this purpose, to risk the defect of a few returns from clergymen who may be discouraged or displeased at this addition to the labour requested of them: in fact the annual fluctuation of the price of corn (that is, of subsistence) affects the number of births, deaths, and marriages so perceptibly that the comparative numbers in any single year would form but an insecure basis of calculation.

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